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dc.contributor.authorSchaub, Yvonne
dc.contributor.authorHuggel, Christian
dc.contributor.authorCochachin Rapre, Alejo
dc.identifier.citationSchaub, Y., Huggel, C. and Cochachín Rapre, A. (2016) Ice-avalanche scenario elaboration and uncertainty propagation in numerical simulation of rock-/ice-avalanche-induced impact waves at Mount Hualcán and Lake 513, Peru. Landslides, 13 (6), 1445-1459. doi: https://10.1007/s10346-015-0658-2es_PE
dc.identifier.issnISSN: 1612-510X (Print) 1612-5118 (Online)es_PE
dc.descriptionFiliación institucional de autor: Alejo Cochachín Rapre /Autoridad Nacional del Agua - Unidad de Glaciología y Recursos Hídricos (ANA-UGRH), Huaraz, Perues_PE
dc.descriptionOriginal abstract: The interest in numerical simulation of cascading processes involving mass movements and lakes has recently risen strongly, especially as the formation of new lakes in high-mountain areas as a consequence of glacier recession can be observed all over the world. These lakes are often located close to potentially unstable slopes and therewith prone to impacts from mass movements, which may cause the lake to burst out and endanger settlements further downvalley. The need for hazard assessment of such cascading processes is continuously rising, which demands methodological development of coupled numerical simulations. Our study takes up on the need for systematic analysis of the effect of assumptions taken in the simulation of the process chain and the propagation of the corresponding uncertainties on the simulation results. We complemented the research of Adv Geosci 35:145-155, 2014 carried out at Lake 513 in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, by focusing on the aspects of (a) ice-avalanche scenario development and of (b) analysis of uncertainty propagation in the coupled numerical simulation of the process chain of an impact wave triggered by a rock/ice avalanche. The analysis of variance of the dimension of the overtopping wave was based on 54 coupled simulation runs, applying RAMMS and IBER for simulation of the ice avalanche and the impact wave, respectively. The results indicate (a) location and magnitude of potential ice-avalanche events, and further showed (b) that the momentum transfer between an avalanche and the impact wave seems to be reliably representable in coupled numerical simulations. The assessed parameters—initial avalanche volume, friction calibration, mass entrainment and transformation of the data between the models—was decisive of whether the wave overtopped or not. The overtopping time and height directly characterize the overtopping wave, while the overtopping volume and the discharge describe the overtopping hydrograph as a consequence of the run-up rather than the wave. The largest uncertainties inherent in the simulation of the impact wave emerge from avalanche-scenario definition rather than from coupling of the models. These findings are of relevance also to subsequent outburst flow simulation and contribute to advance numerical simulation of the entire process chain, which might also be applied to mass movements other than rock/ice avalanches.es_PE
dc.descriptionArtículo en período de embargoes_PE
dc.description.abstractMenciona los peligros ante la formación de nuevos lagos en áreas de alta montaña propensos a los impactos de los movimientos masivos que pone en peligro a los asentamientos ubicados en la zona y exige el desarrollo metodológico de simulaciones numéricas acopladas. En este sentido, el estudio aborda la necesidad de un análisis sistemático del efecto de los supuestos tomados en la simulación de la cadena del proceso y la propagación de las incertidumbres correspondientes sobre los resultados de la simulación. Ello se complementa investigación se cde Adv Geosci 35: 145-155, 2014 realizada en el Lago 513 en la Cordillera Blanca, Perú.es_PE
dc.publisherSpringer Berlin Heidelberges_PE
dc.relation.ispartofseriesLandslides, December 2016, Volume 13, Issue 6, pp 1445–1459es_PE
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International*
dc.sourceAutoridad Nacional del Aguaes_PE
dc.sourceRepositorio institucional - ANAes_PE
dc.subjectComportamiento de eventos extremos de origen glaciar y climáticoes_PE
dc.subjectGestión de riesgos de desastres en recursos hídricoses_PE
dc.subjectMonitoreo de lagunas y glaciareses_PE
dc.titleIce-avalanche scenario elaboration and uncertainty propagation in numerical simulation of rock-/ice-avalanche-induced impact waves at Mount Hualcán and Lake 513, Perues_PE
dc.coverage.basinCuenca Santa

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